By 2026 the classic tradeoffs — cost vs speed vs emissions — remain, but new factors tilt decisions: carbon costs, modal resilience, and hybrid solutions. Cost & scale: Ocean remains far cheaper per tonne for bulk and low-value goods; air is still the premium option for high-value, urgent shipments. But with rising fuel and carbon compliance costs, ocean carriers are passing through new fees — making a true total-landed-cost comparison essential. Speed & reliability: Air offers fastest transit (days) while ocean takes weeks — yet port congestion, blank sailings and variable transit windows mean ocean lead times are more volatile. In 2026, improved port automation in some corridors reduces dwell, while others remain unreliable — so route-specific risk assessment matters. Sustainability & regulation: Air’s emissions intensity per tonne-km is much higher than ocean. With shipping facing new IMO fuel and carbon measures, ocean’s absolute footprint is also under pricing pressure. Many companies will favor sea (or rail) for base inventory and use air for replenishment — or adopt ocean-air hybrids to balance costs, carbon and speed. Decision rule of thumb (2026): Use air for urgent, small, high-value or temperature-sensitive items. Use ocean for bulk, low-value or emission-sensitive loads. Use blended strategies and model total landed cost (freight + inventory + carbon + stock-out risk). Real-time visibility and scenario modelling will be decisive in 2026.